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Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta

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dc.contributor.authorGuizzardi, S.
dc.contributor.authorBianchi, J.
dc.contributor.authorCortese, J.
dc.contributor.authorUriburu Quirno, M.
dc.contributor.authorSabarots Gerbec, M.
dc.coverage.spatialParaná, Rio (river)
dc.coverage.spatial1128391
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-12T16:16:11Z
dc.date.available2024-04-12T16:16:11Z
dc.date.issued2022-06
dc.descriptionFil: Guizzardi, S. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Bianchi, J. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidrología; Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Cortese, J. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua; Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Uriburu Quirno, M. Jefatura de Gabinete de Ministros. Subgerencia Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología. Ciencia y Tecnología. Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales; Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Sabarots Gerbec, M. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
dc.description.abstractThe hydrodynamics of the Paraná Delta is highly conditioned by the interaction of the Paraná River discharge and the tidal regime of the Río de la Plata estuary. In 2020 and 2021, the Paraná River observed one of its most significant low-flow periods in its historical record. The observed low-flows are having a significant impact on water intakes and the navigability of the waterway. A forecasting system has been implemented to predict water levels in different cross sections at two different lead times, i.e., 4 and 15 days, corresponding to different meteorological tide inputs. The 4-day forecast model performance was assessed between 12/08/2021 and 25/1/2022 by means of the following metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), standard error (SE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), computed on modeled and observed series. The evaluation of these forecasts during 5 months show that its performance is satisfactory. The comparison between the time series of observed and simulated water levels shows that there is a good representation of the main trends, not only in time of happening but also in the magnitude of the events. This tool has had a significant impact among users in the region in terms of its outreach, as shown by the large number of website visits to the published forecasts.
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.ina.gob.ar/handle/123456789/638
dc.languageSpanish
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectHydrologic Forecast
dc.subjectHydrodynamics
dc.subjectParaná River
dc.titleForecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
dc.typeDocumento de conferencia
dc.type.versionVersión aceptada

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